The State of Sports Dec. 18th

College Football

Bowl games, a third look:

-Important Bowl games worth watching
As most of our semeters wind down, I will continue to recap what I think will happen with the Bowl games that I hope you would watch. We move into the more competative side of football with some interresting bowl matchups. Most of these matchups are good defenses versus good offenses, and mixes of both. If you disagree or agree, feel free to just comment. I will again be using ESPN, and using things I hear from people I talk to. Everyone is a sports fan, and I always try to bring that experience to this blog, because I cant stand the opinionated columns I read that are all about how they are the "experts." Please note that I do not predict the BCS Bowl games here.

-Alamo Bowl- Favorite-Michigan; Underdog-Nebraska
Dec. 28th; San Antonio; ESPN
A game featuring two teams that have historically had good seasons. Michigan enters the bowl season ranked at #20 in the AP poll, but really hasnt played up to competition that they usually play at. A team that opened the season pre-ranked at #4 lost to Minnesoda, and Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Nebraska on the other hand, has lost to Wake Forest, Kansas (for the first time in 36 years), and Missouri. Yes, both teams have lost to bowl elgible teams, but havent played well in theses losses. They really have had mediocre seasons. Michigan on the other hand has the edge because Chad Henne is one of the more consistent quarterbacks in the Big 10. The opening spread on this game was Nebraska getting 17 points. The interresting thing is that the spread has been going down, and will continue. I think Micigan will blow Nebraska away by a lot though.
-Pick-Michigan


-Holiday Bowl- Favorite- Oregon; Underdog- Oklahoma
Dec. 29th; San Diego; ESPN
A holiday bowl matchup to remember with Oklahoma taking on BCS snubbed #6 ranked Oregon. Sound familiar? Remember last years Holiday bowl matchup with #4 ranked California and #22 ranked Texas Tech? Texas Tech proved that California shouldnt have been in the one of the BCS games at all. So is Oregon really overrated, or should they have been in a Bowl. Like Califorina, their only loss was to top ranked USC. Oregon has blown out teams it should, and played ranked teams (except USC) close, just like any top 10 ranked team would. Oklahoma on the other hand played in the Big 12. The Big 12 this year didn't play up to other BCS conference competition. But, Oklahoma has been consistent after their opening loss to TCU. Oklahoma brings in the 16th ranked defense in yards per game given up, and Oregon has the 15th ranked offense in yards per game. These factors should make the game very interresting. I like Oklahoma because I think they are a team that should be ranked and one of three teams out of this conference that has been consistent. I like picking the upset too.
-Pick-Oklahoma

-Emerald Bowl- Favorite-Georgia Tech; Underdog- Utah
Dec. 29th; San Francisco; ESPN
A game that should have been put in the same category of the Joke Bowls, but is here because it should be a good game. I suggest watching this one because the other really good BCS team vs non-BCS conference matchup for one team lucky to get a bid. Utah, a year removed from first round pick Alex Smith, has the 12th ranked offense in yards per game in the nation. Utah has a 6-5 record loosing two non ranked BCS teams and TCU. They have also lost to 5-7 San Diego State and 6-5 New Mexico. Georgia Tech's went 5-3 in the ACC, loosing to Virgina Tech, Virgina, and NC State. However, Georgia Tech's defense is ranked 10th in yards per game given up. Utah's edge is the way they control the ball. In running the spread option offense, you take risks, but run well, you can beat anyone. It should be a good game, because not many ACC teams see this kind of offense. Georgia Tech should beat them though.
-Pick- Georgia Tech


-Sun Bowl- Favorite-UCLA; Underdog- Northwestern
Dec. 30th; El Paso; CBS
This game looks to be a repeat of last years Liberty Bowl shootout with Boise and Louisville. Does have the edge with UCLA with the 22nd ranked passing offense versus Northwesterns 101st ranked passing defense? Or does Northwestern have the edge with 26th ranked rushing defense versus the 117th ranked rushing defense? Who really knows? I think Northwestern might have the edge because UCLA's kicker got a DUI last week and wont be playing in the bowl. With an opening over-under of 72 (and climbing), this game should be a shootout. I have gone back and forth on this game so many times, and I am still not sure if my UCLA pick is going to do it. I am going on a hunch, with UCLA's secondary will stop the passing attack, and force Northwestern to run, and then they will just stop that. Who am I kidding with this pick. There may be no punting at all.
-Pick- UCLA

-Peach Bowl- Favorite- Miami; Underdog- LSU
Dec. 30th; Atlanta; CBS
A rarity when it comes to bowl matchups, Miami and LSU have two really good defenses. To put it in perspective, Miami brings in the 2nd ranked defense in points per game (11.9) and 3rd ranked defense in yards per game given up (252.1). LSU brings in the 8th ranked defense in points per game (15.2) and 5th ranked in yards per game given up (276.3). With that being said, it just might be a field goal battle. If this game goes into overtime, watch out, it just might be a college classic. Or it could be a game dominated by one defense, blowing the other one out. I think that Miami will come up on the winning end because LSU will have the hangover from the SEC championship upset. Miami should be the dominating team. But, LSU played in the SEC this year, loosing only to Tennessee and Georgia. Both teams played good schedules, this just might end up being a college classic to remember. Remember as of right now Jamarcus Russell is on the DL and is questionable right now. This may have an effect on the game.
-Pick- Miami

-Meineke Car Care Bowl- Favorite- NC State; Underdog- U. Central Florida
Dec 30th; Charlotte; ESPN 2
NC States defense is a surprisingly ranked 14th in the nation, in yards given up per game. Central Florida brings in a squad playing in the Big East for the first time, and making its first bowl game. ESPN reports that they are getting no respect as NC State might beat them if they can stop Central Florida's running back Andre Hall. I think they should, because that is the key to Cen. Floridas game. NC State has also played better opponents in the ACC, and will be playing in front of a home crowd in Charlotte.
-Pick-NC State

-Liberty Bowl- Favorite- Fresno State; Underdog- Tulsa
Dec. 31st; Memphis; ESPN
In this matchup of the Conference USA champion and the team that should be the WAC Champion. Fresno State has lost its last three games to USC, Nevada, and La. Tech, after starting 8-1. The question is, is Fresno State too inconistent to win this game versus a high powered Tulsa offense. Tulsa isnt that high powered, but they are led by NFL future first round pick Garrett Mills (a TE) who caught for 1183 yards (6th in NCAA). Both are pretty good as Tulsa is ranked 39th in total yards per game and Fresno is ranked 29th in yards per game. They also both score a lot of points as Tulsa is ranked 24th (33.3 points) and Fresno is ranked 5th (38.9 points). On the other end of the ball, Fresno is ranked 36th in yards per game and Tulsa isnt far behind at 40th. I think Fresno has the edge because their Quarterback Paul Pinigar while inconsistent will shine on the stage of this new years eve game. He's got 3122 passing yards (10th in NCAA) and 29 touchdowns (5th).
-Pick- Fresno State


-Houston Bowl- Favorite- TCU; Underdog- Iowa State
Dec. 31st; Houston; ESPN 2
Iowa State proved to be a formidible opponent when it beat #8 Iowa, and opened 3-0. They then lost the last three games and thier top 25 ranking. They closed out the season strong 4-1, but suffered a crushing loss to Kansas, as they would have represented the Big 12 North in the championship game. Despite this loss, Iowa State should put up a good fight versus this TCU squad. TCU is one of the best minor conference defenses in the nation most notabably knocking off Oklahoma in the opening week and is ranked 12th in the nation in points per game. Although TCU hasnt played the same kind of comeptition that Iowa State plays, I think they will make adjustments and pull ahead after halftime.
-Pick-TCU

-Cotton Bowl- Favorite- Texas Tech; Underdog- Alabama
Jan. 2nd; Dallas; Fox
Texas Tech enters this game with an offense that is among the best in the nation ranking 2nd to USC in yards per game and 4th in the nation in points per game (42.1 points). Their quarterback, Cody Hodges, had 4042 passing yards (2nd in NCAA) and 30 (4th in NCAA) touchdowns to lead his team to a 9-2 record. Alabama counters with one of the best defenses in the nation as they lead it in points per game (10.7 points) and is 2nd in the nation in yards allowed per game. The last time Alabama faced an offense this good, it was in the Iron Bowl to Auburn. But, this time around Alamaba will know what to expect as they are led by Defensive captain DeMeco Ryan. The defense will be prepared to take this game to a standstill, because Alabama themselves doesnt really have an offense. We will see who wins this game as it might be a struggle for both teams until halftime. I think Alabama has the edge, because when Texas Tech faced the really good Texas defense they were handled 52-17. The score wont be that high, but I just think Alabama has the edge.
-Pick- Alabama

-Outback Bowl- Favorite- Florida; Underdog- Iowa
Jan. 2nd; Tampa; ESPN
Florida a team in a rebuilding year with Urban Meyer as the head coach, did well in the SEC going 5-3, and should do better next year with the spread option offense. Iowa on the other hand went a quiet 5-3, only losing to Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan. A former top 10 team (#7 in AP poll week 2), did alright, but still lost a big game to inconistent Iowa State. This game should be just an all out battle. Both teams have good defenses and balanced offenses. To illustrate my point look at the total win-loss records of Iowa its 72-54. Likewise for Florida, its 71-53. Theste teams are so evenly matched. Florida and Iowa certainly have played well in their respective conferences and it shows that this is a game that my come down to the wire. Florida has the edge beacause I think their defense will stop Iowa when it needs to.
-Pick- Florida


-Gator Bowl- Favorite- Va. Tech; Underdog- Louisville
Jan. 2nd; Jacksonville; NBC
Virgina Tech immediately has the advantage with Quarterback Brian Bromm out with surgury. Vick should be able to redeem himself from the loss in the ACC Championship game. However, maybe Louisville backup Hunter Cadwell can get the job done. Looking at the numbers, Louisville was 7th in the league in yards per game, and 3rd in points per game (just behind Texas and USC). Thier offense is as balanced as they come with a 1000 yard and 23 TD performance on the season by running back Michael Bush. Not only that, but Louisville has four recievers on the season with 500+ yards with Tinch, Urrutia, and Jones. Virgina Tech should blow Louisville away with their top ranked defense. Thier defense is best (#1) with yards per game, and top 10 in rushing and passing defenses. Virgina Tech will pound the ball down Louisville's throat, and win this game.
-Pick- Virgina Tech


-Capital Bowl- Favorite- Auburn; Underdog- Wisconsin
Jan. 2nd; Orlando; ABC
An Auburn team that just creeped up in the standings in the middle of the season with 5-1 record, before loosing to LSU. After that loss, Auburn won its last four games and could have very well competed with Georgia for the SEC crown had they not lost to LSU. Auburn should more than prove that they are worthy to play with the big boys in the BCS games. I dont think Auburn got snubbed by any strech of the imagination, I just think they deserve a better matchup. Wisconsin is overrated. Although they are 13th in the nation in points per game (35.2), they are 57th in yards per game. Their defense is 99th in the nation in total yards given up per game. Wisconsin may score a lot of points, and their hearts out for retiring head coach Barry Alvarez, but they are just no match for Auburn. Auburn is 26th in total yards per game and 9th in the nation in yards given up per game.
-Pick- Auburn