The State of Sports Jan. 12th

-Football

-Second Round of the NFL Playoff Preview: (AFC Teams)

-Patriots at Denver (Sat. 8:00) CBS
I have heard many things about this game. And its only been five days since ive heard that New England was playing Denver. This game is being hyped up by both media outlets in their respective towns, and its all people seem to want to bring up. Wibur seems to bring out the best in this factor, in his blogpost today. Forget Mannys problems. Forget Alito's possible confirmation by the Senate. Forget the fact that maybe this isn't the Bruins and Cetics year. Its all about the Patriots. The defending World Champions.

Denver thinks this is thier opportunity. Since the end of the John Elway Era, the Broncos have seen three playoff games in the last six years, and lost all of them. In those six years, the Broncos have seen two different quarterbacks, five different running backs, and one good playmaking reciever. The fans think this is the year. The fans know this is the game to shock America.

Denver went out and added a defensive line so that it could constantly rotate and bring fresh bodys in to counter whatever offensive line is out on the field and keep the pressure on the quarterback. Belichick noted this in his press conference yesterday. The Broncos also focus the key to their game is ball control. They lead the league in time of possession (32:42 average). In focusing on ball control, they outscore their opponents by scoring early (81-44 in the first half), and scoring late (143-61 in the second half).

They have experienced running back Mike Anderson at the helm, who has rushed for 1,014 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. To complement him, you also have Tatum Bell who has rushed for 921 yards and 8 touchdowns. Denver hardly turns the ball over. In fact, quarterback Jake Plummer has thrown 7 ints all season. No other 16 game starting quarterback has done that this season. His main target is Rod Smith. Smith was 3rd in the AFC in receptions (85) and 4th in the AFC in receiving yards (1105).

Denver has its fare share of holes, however. According to Mike Riess (of the Boston Globe).
Denver is weak on third-down offense (36.2 percent; 22nd in NFL), pass defense (227.7 yards per game; 29th in NFL), kickoff coverage (25.3 yards allowed per runback; 29th in NFL), and lack of pass rush (28 sacks in 613 attempts; 32nd in NFL).

Bosoxguy and myself talked at length about the keys to the game. He said the following:
-Create as many 2nd and 3rd long opportunitys as possible. This basically means shutting Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson down. This really is the backbone of the Denver offense. Denver is second in the league in rushing yards per game (158.7 per game)
-That way the Patriots defense must keep Jake Plummer from moving the ball around, and finding holes in the secondary.
-The battle for turnovers is a must in this game. The Patriots cannot afford to loose fumbles, and Tom Brady cannot afford to throw interceptions. Denver finished with a plus 20 turnover differential on the season (36 takeaways and 16 giveaways; second best in the NFL).
-New England must also establish a running game. Dillion and Faulk are among the best pass-rush receiver tandum in the NFL. Dillion must rush for 75 yards or both must combine for 100 plus, on the day. New England cant afford to have as many first and long situations, like they did last week, against Jacksonville.

I would like to add that the other key to the game for Tom Brady has got to expose Denvers weak secondary. Denver drafted three rookie defensive backs. Although they have corner Champ Bailey, and veteran saftey John Lynch, Denver is ranked 29th in the NFL in pass coverage. Brady should have a field day. Patrick Pass was the main running back, earlier in the sesaon for the Pats. Now they have Dillion and Faulk are the running game now.

The Patriots are also a better team than they were when they played the Broncos. According to the depth chart, the Pats have Richard Seymour, Artrell Hawkins, and Teddy Bruschi playing in this game. Bruschi didnt return until after the bye week and Hawkins hadnt been signed yet. They also had Ellis Hobbes on the bench, because he was a rookie corner in a complex defense. Their other corners were Randall Gay, Autro Freeman, and Duane Starks, and two of them are currently on the IR. They have been replaced by Hawkins, and Ellis Hobbes. My point is this is a better defense than the one that faced the Broncos week 6. A better defense than the one that faced them and gave up 178 yards on 34 carries.

This game is no cake walk. Both defenses will play physical and you know the Pats always find ways to win and come ready to play. The second half will be an adjustment period. Both quarterbacks will step up to the plate and try and deliver their team the victory. Its too bad one team has to loose in the process.

-Pick- New England, in a close game in the 20 point range.



-Pittsburg at Indianapolis (Sun. 1:00) CBS
Unlike the Denver Broncos, Pittsburg is looking for redemption. Since winning the AFC Championship in 95' they havent made a Superbowl since. The Steelers are 5-5 in the postseason, and have lost the 2004, 2001, and 1997 AFC Championship games. How frustrating it must be. Riding on momentum is a key for them right now. After taking out Carson Palmer on the second play of the drive, Pittsburg defense absolutly shut Cincinati down, and they won the game.

Who knew one of the best performers of the game was going to be injured like that. Had he not been injured, Cincinati might have been able to make it a ball game. Palmer is a playmaker. He didnt give up, when the Colts were ahead by a touchdown in that game. He just kept throwing the ball downfield. He tried to expose the weak Colts secondary. Instead, he was replaced by a decent quarterback in Kitna, who hasnt reguarly started since 2003.

A majority of people think that the Colts havent been playing well lately. After loosing to the Chargers in Week 14, the Colts have tried to play back-up Jim Sorgi, and get him some NFL experience. Sorgi, has actually thrown the ball well, but it wasnt enough to beat the Seahawks. In, the last game of the season (a 13-16 victory), the Colts barely ran the ball well, and Sorgi absolutley took over in that game. But thats why you play rookies in meaningless games; to see what they can and cant do. Also, the suicide of Tony Dungy's son, will have an impact on that team. People say it just effects them the head coach in a negative way.

But the Colts are a team that you dont mess with. They have a very good front seven on defense with Dwight Freeny and Corey Simon, who know how to pressure a quarterback. The Colts are also 2nd in points scored per game (27.4) , and 3rd in yards of offense per game (362.4). Their defense has also gotten better this year as they are ranked 11th in yards per game, as opposed to last years mark of 28th in the league. I think Payton Manning and Edgerrin James is always dangerous, and it will be a close game.

Pittsburg has a very good defense that could stop the Colts in thier tracks, like the Patriots did last year. They are ranked 3rd in the NFL in points per game (16.1), 4th in yards given up per game. But I think the Colts defense is just better at making turnovers. Ben Rothlesberger may have played his balls out, versus a good Cincinati Bengals defense, but I dont think it will get the job done. I think the Colts will stop the run as well.

-Pick- Colts, by a touchdown in a 20 point scoring game